Spatial analysis of modern contraceptive use among women who need it in Ethiopia: Using geo-referenced data from performance monitoring for action.

INTRODUCTION: The challenge of achieving maternal and neonatal health-related goals in developing countries is significantly impacted by high fertility rates, which are partly attributed to limited access to family planning and access to the healthcare systems. The most widely used indicator to monitor family planning coverage is the proportion of women in reproductive age using contraception (CPR). However, this metric does not accurately reflect the true family planning coverage, as it fails to account for the diverse needs of women in reproductive age. Not all women in this category require contraception, including those who are pregnant, wish to become pregnant, sexually inactive, or infertile. To effectively address the contraceptive needs of those who require it, this study aims to estimate family planning coverage among this specific group. Further, we aimed to explore the geographical variation and factors influencing contraceptive uptake of contraceptive use among those who need. METHOD: We used data from the Performance Monitoring for Action Ethiopia (PMA Ethiopia) survey of women of reproductive age and the service delivery point (SDP) survey conducted in 2019. A total of 4,390 women who need contraception were considered as the analytical sample. To account for the study design, sampling weights were considered to compute the coverage of modern contraceptive use disaggregated by socio-demographic factors. Bayesian geostatistical modeling was employed to identify potential factors associated with the uptake of modern contraception and produce spatial prediction to unsampled locations. RESULT: The overall weighted prevalence of modern contraception use among women who need it was 44.2% (with 95% CI: 42.4%-45.9%). Across regions of Ethiopia, contraceptive use coverage varies from nearly 0% in Somali region to 52.3% in Addis Ababa. The average nearest distance from a woman's home to the nearest SDP was high in the Afar and Somali regions. The spatial mapping shows that contraceptive coverage was lower in the eastern part of the country. At zonal administrative level, relatively high (above 55%) proportion of modern contraception use coverage were observed in Adama Liyu Zone, Ilu Ababor, Misrak Shewa, and Kefa zone and the coverage were null in majority of Afar and Somali region zones. Among modern contraceptive users, use of the injectable dominated the method-mix. The modeling result reveals that, living closer to a SDP, having discussions about family planning with the partner, following a Christian religion, no pregnancy intention, being ever pregnant and being young increases the likelihood of using modern contraceptive methods. CONCLUSION: Areas with low contraceptive coverage and lower access to contraception because of distance should be prioritized by the government and other supporting agencies. Women who discussed family planning with their partner were more likely to use modern contraceptives unlike those without such discussion. Thus, to improve the coverage of contraceptive use, it is very important to encourage/advocate women to have discussions with their partner and establish movable health systems for the nomadic community.

Magnitude and determinants of early initiation and exclusive breastfeeding at six weeks postpartum: evidence from the PMA Ethiopia longitudinal survey.

BACKGROUND: Early initiation and exclusive breastfeeding are crucial in preventing child morbidity and mortality. Despite the importance of these practices, rates of timely initiation of breastfeeding and exclusive breastfeeding remain suboptimal in many sub-Saharan countries, including Ethiopia. This paper aimed to estimate the prevalence and identify determinants of breastfeeding initiation within the first hour after birth and exclusive breastfeeding in Ethiopia. METHODS: Data from the Performance Monitoring for Action Ethiopia project, a national survey conducted from August 2019 to September 2020, were used. The analytical sample comprises 2564 postpartum women and their children; data reported at baseline during enrollment and six weeks postpartum were used in this analysis. A multi-level binary logistic regression model was employed to identify determinant factors linked with initiation breastfeeding and exclusive breastfeeding. RESULTS: Of the 2564 mothers, 77.8% of infants breastfed within the first hour of birth and 68.4% of women practiced exclusive breastfeeding at six weeks postpartum with significant variation across regions. In the multivariate analysis, mothers who had cesarean delivery were less likely to initiate early breastfeeding as compared to mothers with vaginal delivery (AOR 0.27; 95% CI 0.17, 0.41). The odds of early initiation of breastfeeding were higher for mothers whose baby cried immediately after birth (AOR 3.31; 95% CI 1.95, 5.62) and who had skilled assisted delivery (AOR 2.13; 95% CI 1.01, 4.48). Other factors that were significantly associated with early initiation of breastfeeding were obstetric complication(s), parity, immediate mother-to-baby skin-to-skin contact, immediate postnatal care and the region. Similarly, mothers whose babies had a good neonatal birth status (AOR 1.81; 95% CI 1.09, 2.99) were more likely to exclusively breastfeed their child at six weeks postpartum. CONCLUSIONS: Early initiation of breastfeeding and exclusive breastfeeding is sub-optimal in Ethiopia. Nutrition programmers should consider regional variations in designing intervention programs to enhance breastfeeding practices. Healthcare providers should give special attention to women at risk such as those giving birth through cesarean section and having obstetric complications during delivery.

The Link between Overweight/Obesity and Noncommunicable Diseases in Ethiopia: Evidences from Nationwide WHO STEPS Survey 2015.

Background: Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death worldwide. Each year, 15 million adults die from NCDs; more than 85% of these premature deaths occur in low- and middle-income nations. Evidence indicates that overweight and obesity are the main risk factors for NCDs. Although the literature indicates that the burden of NCDs is increasing in Ethiopia, no research has been conducted to demonstrate a link between overweight/obesity and NCDs. Therefore, the aim of this study is to examine the association between overweight/obesity and the common NCDs while adjusting for other important factors. Methods: We analysed data from the 2015 Ethiopia WHO STEPS survey, which was conducted in 2015. A total weighted sample of 9,800 participants (15-69 years) was included. The relationship between nutritional status and NCDs was assessed using bivariate and multivariable logistic regression models while adjusting for covariates. Results: Among the 9,800 participants, 2053 (21% with (95% CI: 19.8-22.1) had hypertension and 1368 (14% with (95% CI: 13.1-15.0) had high cholesterol levels. According to the multivariable logistic regression analysis, being overweight/obese (AOR = 2.0; 95% CI: 1.7-2.3), alcohol consumption, received lifestyle advice, being female, living in urban areas, increased age, having government occupation, and living in SNNP region were positively associated with hypertension. While being underweight (AOR = 0.6; 95% CI: 0.5-0.7), living in the Afar, Somali, and Tigray regions were negatively associated with hypertension. Being overweight/obese (AOR = 1.4; 95% CI: 1.1-1.7), being female, having older age, and living in Somali region were positively associated with a high cholesterol level. Whereas being underweight (AOR = 0.7; 95% CI: 0.6-0.9), received lifestyle advice, reside in rural areas, being farmer, student, and housewife, and living in Gambela region were negatively associated with a high cholesterol level. Conclusion: This study found a statistically positive association between the common NCDs, namely, overweight/obesity, hypertension, and high cholesterol levels. Our findings imply that there is a need for effective interventions to prevent overweight/obesity by encouraging people to increase physical activity, minimize sedentary behavior, and maintain a healthy dietary pattern in order to reduce the risk of hypertension and high cholesterol levels.

Trend and determinants of quality of family planning counseling in Ethiopia: Evidence from repeated PMA cross-sectional surveys, (2014-2019).

INTRODUCTION: The modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR) among married women has increased by nearly five-fold in Ethiopia from 8.1% in 2000 to 37% in 2019. Despite this increase, receipt of high quality contraceptive counselling, as measured by the percentage of contraceptive users who were told about other methods, counseled on side effects and counseled what to do in the event that they encountered side effects, has declined in recent years. The quality of family planning counseling service measured by using these three components, known as the Method Information Index(MII), is an index designed to measure quality and a key indicator of the FP2020 initiative. The effects of potential client and service provider-level factors on receipt of high quality counseling and its progress over time have not been well studied in Ethiopia. METHODS: We pooled data from seven Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA), formerly PMA2020, survey-rounds to examine the trend and effect of potential factors on receiving high quality of family planning counseling service in Ethiopia. Data from a total of 15,597 women aged 15 to 49 from seven survey-rounds were used in the analysis. To account for the study design and unequal probabilities of selection from target-populations for sampled women, design-based analysis was used to compute proportions. Multilevel ordinal regression model with enumeration area as a second level were employed to examine potential factors associated with quality of family planning counseling service. RESULTS: We found that the percentage of women who received high quality family planning counseling service declined from 39% (95%CI: 33%, 44%) in 2015 to 12% in 2019 (95% CI: 10%, 14%) nationally. Amhara region had the lowest percentage of women receiving high quality counseling at both the earliest(2014) and latest(2019) survey rounds(17% and 6%, respectively). Results show that lack of media exposure about family planning, having no formal education, using short-acting methods, and getting the service from pharmacy were the main factors associated with receiving low quality family planning counseling service. CONCLUSIONS: Given the importance of continuous provision of information on the range of family planning methods, it is imperative to use media and particularly regional media which can effectively address the rural populations in local languages as an important vehicle of information on family planning. Interventions aimed at improving quality of family planning counseling need to be mindful of regional disparities in the severity of the problem to ensure equity in service access. To improve the coverage of high quality family planning counseling service, there is an urgent need to re-visit the format of family planning counselling services.

Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) on the dynamics of COVID-19: A mathematical modelling study of the case of Ethiopia.

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020 and by November 14, 2020 there were 53.3M confirmed cases and 1.3M reported deaths in the world. In the same period, Ethiopia reported 102K cases and 1.5K deaths. Effective public health preparedness and response to COVID-19 requires timely projections of the time and size of the peak of the outbreak. Currently, Ethiopia under the COVAX facility has begun vaccinating high risk populations but due to vaccine supply shortages and the absence of an effective treatment, the implementation of NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions), like hand washing, wearing face coverings or social distancing, still remain the most effective methods of controlling the pandemic as recommended by WHO. This study proposes a modified Susceptible Exposed Infected and Recovered (SEIR) model to predict the number of COVID-19 cases at different stages of the disease under the implementation of NPIs at different adherence levels in both urban and rural settings of Ethiopia. To estimate the number of cases and their peak time, 30 different scenarios were simulated. The results indicated that the peak time of the pandemic is different in urban and rural populations of Ethiopia. In the urban population, under moderate implementation of three NPIs the pandemic will be expected to reach its peak in December, 2020 with 147,972 cases, of which 18,100 are symptomatic and 957 will require admission to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Among the implemented NPIs, increasing the coverage of wearing masks by 10% could reduce the number of new cases on average by one-fifth in urban-populations. Varying the coverage of wearing masks in rural populations minimally reduces the number of cases. In conclusion, the models indicate that the projected number of hospital cases during the peak time is higher than the Ethiopian health system capacity. To contain symptomatic and ICU cases within the health system capacity, the government should pay attention to the strict implementation of the existing NPIs or impose additional public health measures.

Geostatistical analysis and mapping of malaria risk in children of Mozambique.

Malaria remains one of the most prevalent infectious diseases in the tropics and subtropics, and Mozambique is not an exception. To design geographically targeted and effective intervention mechanisms of malaria, an up-to-date map that shows the spatial distribution of malaria is needed. This study analyzed 2018 Mozambique Malaria Indicator Survey using geostatistical methods to: i) explore individual, household, and community-level determinants of malaria in under-five children, ii) prepare a malaria prevalence map in Mozambique, and iii) produce prediction prevalence maps and exceedence probability across the country. The results show the overall weighted prevalence of malaria was 38.9% (N = 4347, with 95% CI: 36.9%-40.8%). Across different provinces of Mozambique, the prevalence of malaria ranges from 1% in Maputo city to 57.3% in Cabo Delgado province. Malaria prevalence was found to be higher in rural areas, increased with child's age, and decreased with household wealth index and mother's level of education. Given the high prevalence of childhood malaria observed in Mozambique there is an urgent need for effective public health interventions in malaria hot spot areas. The household determinants of malaria infection that are identified in this study as well as the maps of parasitaemia risk could be used by malaria control program implementers to define priority intervention areas.

Geostatistical analysis and mapping of malaria risk in children of Mozambique

Malaria remains one of the most prevalent infectious diseases in the tropics and subtropics, andMozambiqueisnotanexception. To design geographically targeted and effective intervention mechanisms of malaria, an up-to-date map that shows the spatial distribution of malaria is needed. This study analyzed 2018 Mozambique Malaria Indicator Survey using geostatistical methods to: i) explore individual, household, and community-level determinants of malaria in under-five children, ii) prepare a malaria prevalence map in Mozambique, andiii) produce prediction prevalence maps and exceedence probability across the country. Theresults show the overall weighted prevalence of malaria was 38.9% (N = 4347, with 95%CI:36.9%­40.8%).Across different provinces of Mozambique, the prevalence of malaria ranges from 1% in Maputo city to 57.3% in Cabo Delgado province. Malaria prevalence was found to be higher in rural areas, increased with child's age, and decreased with household wealth index and mother's level of education. Given the high prevalence of childhood malaria observed in Mozambique there is an urgent need for effective public health interventions in malaria hot spot areas. The household determinants of malaria infection that are identified in this study as well as the maps of parasitaemia risk coul

Spatial pattern and determinants of anaemia in Ethiopia.

Anaemia is a condition in which the haemoglobin concentration falls below an established cut-off value due to a decrease in the number and size of red blood cells. The current study aimed (i) to assess the spatial pattern and (ii) to identify determinants related to anaemia using the third Ethiopian demographic health survey. To achieve these objectives, this study took into account the sampling weight and the clustered nature of the data. As a result, multilevel modeling has been used in the statistical analysis. The analysis included complete cases from 15,909 females, and 13,903 males. Among all subjects who agreed for hemeoglobin test, 5.22% males, and 16.60% females were anemic. In both binary and ordinal outcome modeling approaches, educational level, age, wealth index, BMI and HIV status were found to be significant predictors of anaemia prevalence. Furthermore, this study applied spatial methods to generate maps at regional level which could be useful for policy makers where great efforts should be concentrated to reduce the prevalence of anaemia. As revealed by Moran's I test, significant spatial autocorrelation were noted across clusters. The risk of anaemia was found to vary across different regions, and higher prevalences were observed in Somali and Affar regions.

Evaluation of normalization methods to pave the way towards large-scale LC-MS-based metabolomics profiling experiments.

Combining liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS)-based metabolomics experiments that were collected over a long period of time remains problematic due to systematic variability between LC-MS measurements. Until now, most normalization methods for LC-MS data are model-driven, based on internal standards or intermediate quality control runs, where an external model is extrapolated to the dataset of interest. In the first part of this article, we evaluate several existing data-driven normalization approaches on LC-MS metabolomics experiments, which do not require the use of internal standards. According to variability measures, each normalization method performs relatively well, showing that the use of any normalization method will greatly improve data-analysis originating from multiple experimental runs. In the second part, we apply cyclic-Loess normalization to a Leishmania sample. This normalization method allows the removal of systematic variability between two measurement blocks over time and maintains the differential metabolites. In conclusion, normalization allows for pooling datasets from different measurement blocks over time and increases the statistical power of the analysis, hence paving the way to increase the scale of LC-MS metabolomics experiments. From our investigation, we recommend data-driven normalization methods over model-driven normalization methods, if only a few internal standards were used. Moreover, data-driven normalization methods are the best option to normalize datasets from untargeted LC-MS experiments.